SOLVING THE “RINO” PROBLEM

Courage is the least common virtue. Expecting politicians to demonstrate courage is a fool’s errand. Disappointment, if not anger, will be the likely outcome. Exceptions are few and far between. With this in mind, what would be the best way to influence Republicans, conservatives, independents, the uninvolved and maybe a smattering of old fashion liberals to vote for politicians who will move the nation back in a conservative direction? I would suggest that electing a conservative President who can build a broad popular consensus is necessary for change in a conservative direction that has a life span of more than a few years. Otherwise moments of exhilaration, like 2016-2019, will likely be followed by years of disappointment. For example, the hangover we are suffering at the moment.

By conservative direction I mean reduce the power of the federal government, appoint originalist judges, pursue free market solutions on economic issues, return to energy independence, secure the border, shrink the bureaucracy, pass state election integrity laws, fund a robust cost effective national defense, get woke out of government, support school choice, get the feds out of schools, enforce the Constitution as written, lower taxes and regulations. Trump governed successfully in many of these ways.

Some seem to believe that castigating those they refer to as RINO’s (Republicans in name only), inauthentic conservatives or Trump sellouts, will somehow reduce or eliminate RINO influence, voting patterns or lead to RINO election defeat. I see few examples of how pejorative assaults have influenced RINOs or their constituents to abandon their RINO ways. Accusatory rhetoric motivates resistance. RINO’s are legitimately elected. Their constituents are in control of their access to power.

Politicians of every stripe tend to bend in the direction of the political winds. If the winds are blowing in a conservative direction, RINO’s bend to accommodate. They will run from those demonstrating popular weakness. Calling Republicans RINOs may be cathartic, but it will change nothing. 

What does it take to convince the less than courageous majority of elected Republicans (RINO’s and everyone else) to hold true to conservative principles? Our favorite conservative guy or gal will likely disappoint us somewhere along the way. Cruz, Trump, Pence, Cotton, Haley, Barr, Bolton etc. are not likely to conform to all our perfect litmus tests. Even 80% in line can be labeled RINO 20% of the time. Liz Chaney voted almost 94% in line with Trump and Pence 100%.

The only way I can conceive of, in the real world, getting a significant majority of Americans on board is by electing a President who appeals to a broader cross-section of Americans. I understand the necessity and wisdom of the Electoral College. We dare not abolish it. But most politicians, especially the wishy-washy ones, require cover less esoteric then a major Electoral College victory. A resounding popular mandate is the elixir for effective arm-twisting. Winning big tends to over-populate bandwagons. Claiming huge victories with a slim to zero popular majority only detracts from credibility. 

Choosing a candidate to support in a primary election because he or she energizes a visceral distaste for the other side, pontificates about past “rigged” elections or nourishes a preexisting love affair are poor gauges for predicting a large popular vote victory. Roaring crowds of like-minded zealots at CPAC and Turing Point USA may camouflage gaping holes of national support. Put Biden in a hall filled with public union employee zealots and you’d think he was Elvis.

Have we not learned the lesson from two lost Senate seats in Georgia in 2020? Both tight races were lost largely because of Trump’s viscerally driven recriminations directed at  Governor Kemp and Secretary of State Raffensperger. The President targeted both as RINOs for failing to reject Georgia’s 2020 Presidential election outcome. Republican turnout slumped. Two lefties won. 

Subsequently both the Governor and Secretary of State won respective Republican races. Both elected officials were consistent. They did not cave to Tracy Abram’s insistence that she was the victim of a rigged election. They also passed election an integrity law to solve the 2020 problems.

Much of the damaging, wasteful and inflation deficit exploding legislation that has been passed under Biden could have been stopped in the Senate had the two Georgia seats been held. One man’s inability to get over his loss contributed directly to our current economic disaster. Even if we believe Trump won, there was no way he could have been reinstated as President. Actions based on past disappointments is self-defeating in the micro, our personal lives, and macro, public lives. Trump has spent months demonstrating an unassailable inability to fully exploit Biden’s unpopularity and failures.

Many of Trump’s three years of accomplishments have been neutralized. Border security and energy independence are two of the most troubling, costly and deadly examples. Fortunately, Trumps tax cuts and judicial nominees are still in place. However recent Biden tax increases and the new green deal (slimmed down version) have been voted into law thanks to a 50/50 Senate tie broken by clueless Kamala. 

I have no desire to crap on Trump, but the reality is that Senate losses can have decades of disastrous consequences. Justice Thomas is not a spring chicken. He doesn’t look particularly fit. God help us if Biden’s Senate edge holds or increases in November. An inarticulate good guy with a checkered past named Herschel Walker is trialing an articulate incumbent Sharpton style black supremacist named Warnock. TV sensationalist Dr. Oz is trailing a fool in Pennsylvania. Both Walker and Oz were endorsed by Trump over more experienced and qualified conservatives solely because of their lack of fealty to the stolen election allegations.

It is at conservative policy risk if emotional ties to Trump blind people to the fact that he is detested by half of Americans. An election centered around Trump, which he and his enemies desire, will fail to take full advantage of Biden’s failures and unpopularity. A silver platter of opportunity sits before us. Our love affair should be with Trump conservative accomplishments in office, not the man, come hell or high water. How best to preserve and expand on Trump’s good deeds should be paramount. When his behavior endangers the future of his past deeds, he becomes the problem not the solution. I understand he will likely run. If he does, he will probably be the nominee. Under those circumstances I will vote for him. 

I offer my fantasy of a Trump profile in courage. Ironically, this could be the best way to preserve his legacy. “I have set the table for a younger man to carry on my incredible winning ways. I pledge all my energy and resources to the nomination and election of my good friend Governor Ron DeSantis. I enthusiastically pass the MAGA baton to Governor Ron DeSantis”. Unfortunately, this is only a fantasy. 

Reagan won in 1980 with 51% of the popular vote to 41 % for Carter and 6% for Anderson. A 10% edge in a presidential election is huge. Carter set the table. Reagan dined with charm, style and conservative governance. In 1984 Reagan crushed Mondale 59% to 41%. That popular victory empowered a mandate far more potent then name-calling about inauthenticity or claiming an historic electoral college win with no popular edge. Until we are able to unite around someone who can appeal more broadly then Trump, change in a conservative direction will be ephemeral. Three years of great deeds is not a political revolution. Trump’s successes represented a battle won in an ongoing war to hold true to Constitutional principles and free markets. Three years is a feel-good hiccup in historic terms. The change wrought by Reagan lasted for decades. Many of Trump’s accomplishments lasted barely 3 years.