AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TAKING

At the beginning of 2021 Gallop polled party identification indicating that 48% of voters identified with the Democratic Party and 40% the Republican Party. That was in part, along with great accomplishments, the Trump legacy. By the end of 2021 the poll showed an historic shift, 47% Republican and 42% Democrat. This presents an enormous opportunity for a national move in a conservative direction in 2022 and 2024. The public’s perception of Trump and Biden is not likely to change. 

I suggest two things, occurring simultaneously, are largely responsible for this political earthquake. Trump had been off the stage for a while and Biden was fixed at center stage screwing up more than his worst enemies could have ever envisioned. As Nixon said in 1962 about himself, “You don’t have Nixon to kick around anymore…”.  

Wrongfully banned Trump from Twitter may have been a blessing for conservatives. Trump’s Twitter sound bites ignited his base, often were legitimately over the top and frequently distorted by legacy media. That content was no longer the daily lead story. Trump was hamstrung in his ability to provide his detractors ammunition for their assault.

I fully understand, am very grateful for and know in great detail the long list of Trump accomplishments. Unfortunately, President Trump has a core temperamental incapability of expanding his base. That expanding potential, the one that could give a conservative president a popular mandate as indicated by Gallop, is something he has shown he is unable to exploit. My hope, at first after he won and then dozens of times during four years of repeated successes accompanied by low approval ratings, was that he would stop allowing personal pique to cast a shadow over his accomplishments. The man seems to have what classic drama describes as a fatal flaw.

His speeches as he is reemerging at rallies are punctuated with expressions of recriminations reminiscent of a bitter little boy seeking verbal retribution for mistreatment as his friends cheer him on. His outbursts accomplish nothing in terms of promoting the conservative values he professes or crafting the election integrity reform he desires. He just can’t help himself. His need for adulation from an assembled base is his sustenance. He lights up on that podium. I have seen his charm, humor and frank presentation of truth. But he punctuates the good stuff with unnecessary personal animus at enemies new and old. His most recent being a conservative Governor who won office with a near 15% margin, Doug Ducey. In the same way laughter feeds a comedian’s soul, adoring crowds are Trump’s nutrition while simultaneously repulsing undecided voters. If his approach had worked to broaden his base, we would have seen this identification shift when he commanded the bully pulpit.

None of this excuse’s legacy media’s mistreatment, Democrats obsessive unfair accusations, two ludicrous impeachments and the endless lies told about Trump. Those are givens. Counterpunching might serve as a psychic balm for him and his core supporters but a popular majority it never generated.

He crafted a comfortable electoral victory over one of the most unlikable and inauthentic candidates in my lifetime. But he is by temperament unable to view that victory as anything other than a massive personal popular victory for the man America loves. Four years of polling proved that to be an illusion. Many liked his policies more than the man. That insight could have informed him that verbal excesses are counter-productive, but it didn’t

He has not learned the lesson from discouraging Georgia Republicans in the last senatorial race. He felt compelled to publicly express his distaste for the governor and secretary of state; and unlikelihood of a fair count, regardless of its impact on Republican voter turnout. Did he want the two Republican candidates to lose? Probably not. He could not by nature leave it alone. 

If he runs, he will be the issue both because legacy media will do its best to make that happen and his penchant to accommodate his detractors.

After more than five years hoping he could or would rise above a pure “counter-punch” approach, I would be the delusional one to assume he is capable of change.

The party identification shift can be a monumental opportunity to move the nation rightward. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin demonstrated the power of core conservative ideas when they are center stage rather than personality. This is especially true when the personality in question pisses off at least half of the electorate. 

Trump’s core base seems equally temperamentally unable to understand how Trump comes off to millions of moderates and independents, let alone liberals. To be clear, I am extremely grateful for all that President Trump did domestically and internationally for our precious nation in terms of freedom, tolerance and opportunity. But I hope he passes the baton to a conservative capable of winning a broader victory in order to move America back in a direction closer to the one envisioned by our Founding Fathers. If he is the Republican nominee I will vote for him.